Don't let a recession become a self-fulfilling prophesy!

 

 

 

Since 1980 we have experienced six recessions, each averaging about ten months in duration.  Only one of these had anything to do with classic economics.  The other 5 were the result of activities beyond the control of the general populace.  These include the Iranian Oil embargo in 1980; the Gulf War in 1990; the Dot Com bubble in 2001; the housing collapse of 2008 (leading to zero prosecutions of any bankers); and the Covid 19 2020 recession.

 

The reality is that, left to its own devices, the economy has a way of balancing itself and correcting swings in either direction.  It is only when excessive greed or tragedy intervenes that we experience an upset…a brief upset…and then the ship rights itself and we carry on.

 

We don’t need layoffs.  We don’t need government intervention.  We just need the laws to be properly enforced and legitimate prosecutions to be initiated.  We can figure out the rest.

 

People will continue to purchase food and other necessities of life.  We will travel.  We will save and we will spend because we are resilient and despite government assertions to the contrary, we generally do know what is best for us.

 

Consumers consume…duh!  And while there may be short term interruptions from time to time we don’t need economists who are better labeled as historians trying to crystal ball a future because frankly they suck at it.  We also don’t need knee-jerk reactions by executives to enact layoffs so they appear to be ‘reacting to current economic conditions’ when the reality is they are simply trying to protect their collective behinds and their stock options.

 

In 2008 I was commanded to reduce my headcount (sorry SA).  The short straw fell to someone who really didn’t deserve it but his severance of many, many months allowed him to transition to a competitor and kick my butt while I lost out on the sales that he would have generated had he remained in place.  It was a losing proposition for my company but a God send to my competitor and the individual that I ‘out placed’.

 

I understand that there will still be some caught in the cross fire of changing economic conditions but we will care for them and work to ensure that they are not the ‘collateral damage’ of change.

 

The next year will be filled with opportunities and challenges.  We will welcome the former and overcome the latter.  Both will pass and likely more quickly than we expect.  Remain resilient, remain realistic, and remain positive.  Our best has always seen us through whatever situation confronts us…and our best will continue to serve us in the future.