Since 1980 we have
experienced six recessions, each averaging about ten months in duration. Only one of these had anything to do with
classic economics. The other 5 were the
result of activities beyond the control of the general populace. These include the Iranian Oil embargo in
1980; the Gulf War in 1990; the Dot Com bubble in 2001; the housing collapse of
2008 (leading to zero prosecutions of any bankers); and the Covid 19 2020
recession.
The reality is that, left to
its own devices, the economy has a way of balancing itself and correcting
swings in either direction. It is only
when excessive greed or tragedy intervenes that we experience an upset…a brief
upset…and then the ship rights itself and we carry on.
We don’t need layoffs. We don’t need government intervention. We just need the laws to be properly enforced
and legitimate prosecutions to be initiated.
We can figure out the rest.
People will continue to
purchase food and other necessities of life.
We will travel. We will save and
we will spend because we are resilient and despite government assertions to the
contrary, we generally do know what is best for us.
Consumers consume…duh! And while there may be short term
interruptions from time to time we don’t need economists who are better labeled
as historians trying to crystal ball a future because frankly they suck at
it. We also don’t need knee-jerk
reactions by executives to enact layoffs so they appear to be ‘reacting to
current economic conditions’ when the reality is they are simply trying to
protect their collective behinds and their stock options.
In 2008 I was commanded to
reduce my headcount (sorry SA). The
short straw fell to someone who really didn’t deserve it but his severance of
many, many months allowed him to transition to a competitor and kick my butt
while I lost out on the sales that he would have generated had he remained in
place. It was a losing proposition for
my company but a God send to my competitor and the individual that I ‘out
placed’.
I understand that there will still
be some caught in the cross fire of changing economic conditions but we will care
for them and work to ensure that they are not the ‘collateral damage’ of change.
The next year will be filled
with opportunities and challenges. We
will welcome the former and overcome the latter. Both will pass and likely more quickly than we
expect. Remain resilient, remain realistic,
and remain positive. Our best has always
seen us through whatever situation confronts us…and our best will continue to serve
us in the future.
